A survey conducted by researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Library found that turbines will continue to expand in size.
The study, which was done by 140 world’s wind power specialists, also found that costs will fall dramatically, and wind power infrastructure projects will increasingly be combined with battery or hydrogen generation. The researchers established the study after they were asked to forecast the industry’s future in 2035.
Wind power costs were expected to fall across the board. When contrasted to today’s figures, the experts polled predicted that the LCOE for onshore wind will fall by 27 percent and that of offshore wind by up to 35 percent by 2035. These trends are projected, notwithstanding the possibility that future projects would be located in less desirable wind locations.
The experts predicted that the median international annual average wind rates for proposed onshore developments will fall to 7.5 m/s in 2035. The experts also predict that generator capacity ratings, hub elevations, and rotor diameters will all increase in size.
The average capacity of onshore wind turbines is predicted to increase to 5.5 MW in 2035. Offshore wind turbines are also predicted to outnumber onshore equivalents by 2035, with capacity increasing to 17 MW in total. According to 40% of study respondents, the average offshore wind turbine erected in 2035 will be 20 MW or greater.
Fixed-bottom offshore wind plants are expected to have a capacity of 1,100 MW while floating offshore wind plants will have a capacity of 600 MW.
These and numerous other design options addressed in the article can help wind energy provide grid services, such as project integration with batteries and hydrogen generation.
In short, design decisions are driven by these mechanisms because the benefits of decreased prices or improved energy output surpass the additional cost of attaining them.
The experts also polled global experts to find out what industrial restrictions they anticipate will exist in 2035.
Authorization, logistics, and community acceptance were highlighted as problems confronting onshore wind by respondents. This means that offshore wind will face expenditures for ocean-going boats, construction cranes, and delivery and servicing port infrastructure.
However, regional disparities existed as indicated in the study. North American wind developments were predicted to have greater challenges in terms of road transport, shipping, cranes, and ports. Because of community acceptance, European wind initiatives were likely to experience more obstacles.